Strike force for the 21st century

Cyber weapons of mass destruction could become the Polish force de frappe of the 21st century.

The best victories are those when the enemy gives up the fight before the first shot is fired. Moving the war into enemy's territory, or at least a credible threat of such a potential, are key aspects of deterrence power. Is it then possible to completely and permanently dissuade Russia from the threat of attacking Poland?

France of the 1950s knew, as does Poland today, that it would not achieve military superiority or even balance against Russia. In 1954, Pierre Mendès' government set its sights on developing nuclear weapons. At the time, France was one of the few countries with the technical, technological, human and industrial potential for such an ambition. Strike force (force de frappe) was known in French political debate as the policy of deterrence of the stronger by the weaker (dissuasion du faible au fort).

The 21st-century equivalent of such a strike force could lower the risk of aggression against Poland in particular and the West in general. Among defence strategies, one should therefore consider the building of a cyber weapon of mass destruction. It would be Poland's valuable contribution to the defence potential of Europe and NATO, building a strategic balance against hostile states.

Process of building cyber weapons brings with it a significant economic potential too. Israel is the best example. A country of eight million people has a global cyber market share similar to the US, China and Russia. Its exports of IT products equal exports of armaments. Former soldiers of Unit 8200 or Mamram - elite formations focusing on offensive and defensive cyber operations - have founded many of the top companies in the high-tech sector. They are also among the most sought-after high-tech workers.

Between 2013 and 2019, nearly 800,000 Poles graduated with a degree in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics). Poland ranks four in Europe in this regard. Google, Microsoft and Intel announced investments worth billions of dollars in the new tech in Poland. This shows the private sector's assessment of the quality of Polish talent.

At the same time, only 1.65 billion of the 97 billion PLN ($400mn out of $24bn) budgeted for defence in 2023 is earmarked for cyber security and cryptographic support. North Korea - a country with a GDP per capita 20 times lower than Poland - is, according to the head of the British intelligence service GCHQ, one of the four countries with the most sophisticated and dangerous cyber capabilities. The prioritisation of resource allocation is therefore decisive. Allocating less than 2 percent of the defence budget to cyber forces suggests that they are not currently a priority in Poland.

It is worth distinguishing between two types of cyber activities. The first is aimed at peacetime and wartime safety and security. Most countries and some companies are active in this area. The second type is the equivalent of the 20th century force of destruction intended to effectively deter the enemy from launching an attack. What I mean by this is the ability to permanently destroy on a massive scale - by means of a remote cyber and electronic attack - the energy, transportation and hospital infrastructure, as well as the data held by state institutions and companies of an enemy country. An attack that would set an enemy country back 100 years in development. Cyber weapons of mass destruction.

Building such a capability is a task for a decade, not a year or two, thus it is worth starting today. These investments could also make it possible for Poland to catch up with the leaders in artificial intelligence.

The scale of Poland's military spending in the coming years; the number of STEM graduates; the technological changes of recent decades; the experience of countries such as France and Israel; all of these create new opportunities for Poland.

Taking advantage of these opportunities requires investment in the brains of soldiers, not just their muscles and steel. Trustful and close cooperation with and support of private Polish companies, modelled on Israel, could create opportunities for our economy and security. The deterrent power of cyber weapons of mass destruction could become the Polish force de frappe of the 21st century.

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