European Defense Alliance - back to the source

When the future of NATO depends on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, it is necessary to return to the idea at the root of a common Europe forming in the face of a threat from the East.

Our country is like a ship sailing through the ocean of history. NATO appears here as a lifeboat - a salvation from the storm. However, even the best vessels are equipped with life jackets before sailing. Similarly, building the second pillar of Polish security in the form of a European army should be done before the storm.

President Trump's chief national security advisor for 2018-2019 John Bolton says Trump planned to withdraw the US from NATO and that he will do so if he becomes president in 2024. With Putin's expectation of a de facto dissolution of the North Atlantic Alliance, Bolton explains the lack of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in Trump's first term.

Bolton, who held senior positions in the administrations of Presidents Reagan and Bush, is the most prominent, but not the only, U.S. policymaker to talk about the isolationist threat to NATO. In his first term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from several key agreements: NAFTA (the North American equivalent of a free trade zone in Europe); the Paris Agreement on climate change; UNESCO; the UN Human Rights Council; the Iran nuclear deal; the Trans-Pacific Partnership, etc.

Trump said of NATO that it is an obsolete relic of the Cold War, which "is no longer there after all." Withdrawal from the Alliance is therefore not just a hypothetical scenario. The risk that one or another isolationist will become resident in the White House in future years is real. This would pose a serious threat to Poland's security.

Disasters are usually the result of not one or two, but several consecutive errors or failures of key systems. This is because the loss of one system activates a backup system - a lifeboat. Poland's situation is radically different from Ukraine's thanks to our membership in NATO. The strength of the Alliance is based on the deterrent potential of the US. The states account for 70% of member countries' defense spending (2021). A U.S. exit from NATO is comparable to drastically downsizing a lifeboat, removing most of its oars and communications system and putting a hole in the bottom. The lack of vests would be madness in such a situation.

The only possible and viable supplement to NATO and national security systems is the construction of a European defense alliance. The idea of a European army is not new. On the contrary, it already appeared at the dawn of the European Union. In May 1952, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands signed the Treaty on the European Defense Community (EDC). The initiative was supported by both General Eisenhower (then head of NATO) and the US administration. This was clearly expressed by Secretary of State Dulles, who said in 1953 that the EWO would be "the heart of European security." In the midst of the Cold War, the EWO was seen not as a counterweight, but as a support to NATO and the transatlantic agreements. Unfortunately, France - as a result of internal disputes - did not ratify the Treaty.

Today, when the future of NATO - and with it the security of Poland and Europe - depends on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, in the face of a war in a neighboring country, it is necessary to return to the idea at the root of a common Europe forming in the face of a threat from the East.

The construction of the EDC should be combined with the rationalization of the European defence industry, drawing on the American experience. Poland - as one of the five largest EU countries and the most important country on the eastern flank - has strong bargaining chips in such negotiations. Our cyber defense potential, which I wrote about two months ago ("Plus Minus" of July 1-2, 2023), is the basis for locating this part of the defense industry in Poland along with other high-tech sectors.

Geopolitical prudence, coupled with the opportunity for industrial development, prompts the construction of the second NATO-strengthening pillar of our security - the European Defense Community. The creation of a European army is already supported by 57% of Poles (Yougov, April 2022). It's time to convince others of this idea.

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Image source: www.shutterstock.com/Pavlo Lys