Polish presidency of the EU

Opportunities are once again opening up for Poland to realize its aspirations to co-lead - with Paris and Berlin - Europe. The next nine months are the time to prepare to seize the upcoming opportunities.

Europe faces three great challenges. The first is geopolitics and the need to build its hard power. The hot war in Ukraine and the cold war with China are two - not the only - reasons to act decisively.

The second challenge is the economy and the need to deal with the rising cost of servicing public debt. High debt and rising interest rates mean that in 2-3 years, debt service in France, for example, will be the largest item in the national budget - larger than military spending. Gravity will catch up with each of us at some point.

The third challenge is the need to protect the environment and adapt to climate ubdced changes, which we can already observe. We are crossing safety thresholds in several areas of planetary boundaries outlined by Johan Rockström, this year's winner of the Tyler Prize, also known as the Nobel Prize for the Environment. In some countries - Spain, Italy and Greece, for example - this is already having a strong impact on staple foods. Olive oil, which in Spain has quadrupled in price over the past four years, has become the most stolen product in stores there.

These three metatrends will be overlaid by the politics of the next 12 months. According to current forecasts, the radical right is likely to have a stronger result than before in June's European Parliament elections. This could affect the composition of the European Commission, which will be appointed in the fourth quarter of 2024. Hungarian presidency of the Council of the EU, which this country will hold from July 1, will increase tensions within the European institutions. A new US president will be elected this November. And the backdrop for 2025 will be the October elections in Germany, where the nationalist AfD is currently the second most popular party.

In such context Poland will begin its first EU presidency in 14 years on January 1, 2025. This is the second time - since Brexit - that we face the opportunity to take our place among the three most important players in the EU. We squandered the first chance through the inactivity and reflexivity of the then government. We cannot afford another failure. We must choose our goals in each of the aforementioned areas of challenge we face as Europe: security, economy and environment. The next nine months are the time to prepare to implement this plan during the presidency.

What and how do we want to communicate to the European public and decision-makers? In the area of security, it is worth betting on the European Defense Alliance and cyber weapons of mass destruction, which I wrote about last September and July.

In the economy, one of the most felt costs of the war in Ukraine is food inflation. The European response should be to create a food processing center in eastern Poland. With European funds and Polish investment, we can solve the long-term problem of an influx of food that Polish and European farmers will not be able to compete with. Processing also offers more added value than growing alone. This is an opportunity for a developmental boost for Podkarpackie, Lubelszczyzna and Podlasie*. Bringing in U.S. investors in this sector could strengthen U.S. interest in NATO's eastern flank defense.

Environmental protection must be linked to the flow of resources to the most affected groups (vide farmers) and to strengthening protection of the European market from unfair competition from companies contributing to the degradation of nature and decline of biodiversity.

We have a chance to set the tone for the next years of European integration and reality on the ground. It is a choice between directing our - Polish and European - destiny or letting others do it for us. Let's make the most of the opportunities available to us.

* Podkarpackie, Lubelszczyzna and Podlasie are three provinces in eastern Poland.

** Source: Shutterstock